Create and release your Profile on Zintellect – Postdoctoral applicants must create an account and complete a profile in the on-line application system. Please note: your resume/CV may not exceed 2 pages.
Complete your application – Enter the rest of the information required for the IC Postdoc Program Research Opportunity. The application itself contains detailed instructions for each one of these components: availability, citizenship, transcripts, dissertation abstract, publication and presentation plan, and information about your Research Advisor co-applicant.
Additional information about the IC Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Program is available on the program website located at: https://orise.orau.gov/icpostdoc/index.html.
If you have questions, send an email to ICPostdoc@orau.org. Please include the reference code for this opportunity in your email.
Research Topic Description, including Problem Statement:
Intelligence analysts and other analysts often make numerical estimates of two types: (1) An estimate of the probability of a certain proposition, such as, "It is 80 percent likely that this country has this type of weapon," or (2) An estimate of a value along a continuous range. This second type is often given as a probability interval, e.g., "There is a 90 percent chance that the number of people infected with this disease is between 25,000 and 30,000." The accuracy of both types of estimates is a product of analysts' subject-matter knowledge and their skill in making well-calibrated numerical estimates. The Postdoc will develop easy-to-learn and easy-to-use software that rapidly and substantially improves people's judgmental calibration. The software will improve the calibration in both types of numerical judgments identified above. It will improve calibration with no loss of performance in discrimination. It will be effective for people with or without training in mathematics or statistics.
An online game, requiring minimal or no instruction, where users make numerical estimates and receive feedback in the form of points earned for correct answers. The feedback has the effect of rapidly and substantially improving users’ judgmental calibration and they can effectively apply this skill to new numerical estimation tasks beyond those in the game.
Relevance to the Intelligence Community:
Substantially improving intelligence analysts’ judgmental calibration will enable them to make more-accurate numerical estimates.
Key Words: Judgmental Calibration, Judgment and Decisionmaking, Probability Estimation, Numerical Estimation, Uncertainty Analysis, Statistical Analysis